Major bank flags property slowdown

One of the big four banks has warned that the housing sector’s contribution to economic growth in Australia is set to ease throughout 2016.

The acting chief economist of ANZ Richard Yetsenga has stated, “The ANZ-Property Council Survey confirms that the peak in the property growth cycle has passed,”he further stated “While the housing sector has started 2016 in better shape than it concluded 2015, and a significant backlog of work is likely to mean that housing construction activity and employment remain around record levels, the slowdown in growth is proving to be inexorable.”

As always banks even when being down beat always end on a positive statement, but are fundamentals good for the future?Will this slow down turn into a reverse in property prices? It is hard to say . One report out of Europe has put Australia second behind China as the country most likely to have a large property price correction. Will this occur is uncertain as there are other factors which could allow for a soft landing with static growth in property over the next decade in Australia.

What is a little disconcerting is the tightening of lending to foreign property buyers by Westpac. With the largest number of these loans going to Chinese individuals, it would appear the report out of Europe which put China number one on the  property crash list (Australia second) has been to a large extent agreed with by Westpac and the bank is now looking to reduce its risk.

Should we all be concerned? Well buyers who have purchased in the peak in Sydney and Melbourne Should certainly be a little concerned. Not so for Queensland and more specifically Brisbane. Brisbane and surrounding areas have only seen modest growth which will mean any correction will be small in comparison to Sydney and Melbourne.

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